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13 November 2006

Lebanon, Post War

It was clear during the last war between Hezbollah and Israel, that Hezbollah were not pleased with the way the Lebanese government dealt with it. Also, after the war, and the UN 1701 resolution that is going to limit - if not destroy - Hezbollah's military power, it was normal for them to seek more political power as a compromise. I think also that being the president of Lebanon is one of the main points on General Oun's agenda, who is Hezbollah's ally as well.

On the other hand, there are Sheik Saad El Hariri, Waleed Beik Jumblatt, and Samir Geagea, who are having the majority of the parliament and hence the cabinet. Thanks to the sympathy with the murder of Rafik El Hariri, the threesome got their political power in the first place, and they were able then to kick the Syrian army out of Lebanon.

Actually, after the war, it was clear that the departure of the Syrian army from Lebanon was for the Israeli favor. You may argue that the Syrians didn't have the right to stay in Lebanon in the first place, but was it the best timing for such action then!? At least it saved Israel from fighting on two different fronts at the same time. And now it was clear that Saad El Hariri et. al. were going to play with the Rafik El Hariri card again, and I am sure they have their own goals that they can reach using the International trial they are calling for with the help of the UN. I may not have clear evidences in this point, but I just have the feeling that they are insisting on the trial in order to complete a certain plan in their - as well as the Israelis/Americans - minds.

So after all these consequences, it was expected from Hezbollah-Amal-Oun allies to plan for the collapse of the current Hariri-Jumblatt-Geagea's government, or at least to demanded a greater role in the cabinet. They wanted one third of the cabinet seats in order to be able to veto laws, and to have a more active role in the government. It's really interesting that the Shiaa in Lebanon are a majority when it comes to numbers, but they are a minority when it comes to power. And for sure the Hariri-Jumblatt-Geagea gang opposed to this. And during the talks held in the last ten days each party insisted on their point of view, which was expected from the beginning.

Now, after the collapse of the talks held between the two opponents, it was the turn for Hezbollah's allies to make a move. The cabinet ministers from Hezbollah as well as Amal's ministers resigned yesterday. Now, the next expected move is that each party will ask its members and supporters to get down to the street, which is a really scary option. I am not sure how this crisis will end. So, let's wait and see what will happen in Lebanon in the next few days.

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